Why Heatpump Economics exists
Every major home energy purchase — a heating system, a vehicle, a solar installation — is an investment decision. It has an upfront cost, an operating cost, and a service life at the end of which you do it again. The math either works or it doesn't, and the honest answer often surprises people.
Yet most consumer-facing heat pump content runs on simplifying assumptions: a single national electricity rate, a rounded "COP of 3," a rebate estimate that ignores income caps and program exhaustion, a payback period that never accounts for financing or maintenance. Those shortcuts hide the variables that actually determine whether a heat pump saves a specific household money in a specific climate on a specific utility rate. The result is content that's directionally right in aggregate and unreliable at the individual level — exactly backward from what a homeowner comparing quotes needs.
Heatpump Economics is built to work the other way. Every calculation is grounded in real data: live electricity, natural gas, heating-oil, and propane prices from the U.S. Energy Information Administration; degree-day-based heating and cooling load modeling by climate zone; NEEP-cataloged cold-climate heat pump performance; current federal, state, and utility incentive programs. Every assumption is stated. Every case study is dated and sourced. When our math says a gas furnace wins, we publish that conclusion exactly as the numbers produce it.
The larger goal is broader than individual homeowner decisions. Heating and cooling account for roughly half of a typical U.S. home's energy use, and electrification of that load is one of the more consequential levers in the broader shift toward a lower-carbon grid. Honest, unbiased economics — not marketing claims — is what actually moves that transition forward at the pace people can afford.
Our editorial commitments
01
Analytical independence
No equipment manufacturer, HVAC contractor, or utility can influence what our math concludes. Our analytical outcomes come from data and modeling, not commercial relationships. A heat pump that wins in our analysis wins because the numbers said so — and when a furnace wins, we say that too.
02
Disclosure of economic relationships
When we earn revenue from partnerships or affiliate relationships, we disclose it prominently on the relevant content. Analytical conclusions are never for sale. This mirrors the standard set by respected consumer publications.
03
Willing to publish uncomfortable conclusions
Case studies where a gas furnace wins, an oil boiler is a near-tie, or the payback stretches past the equipment's service life are published exactly as the numbers produce them. Our credibility depends on being right, not on being pro-heat-pump.
04
Data verified continuously
Energy prices, incentive programs, and equipment specifications are verified against federal and state sources on an ongoing basis. Incentive programs in particular change fast — the 25C/25D EV and home-energy credits expired under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and DOE's HEEHR rebate rules have already narrowed once. We track those changes rather than waiting for user reports.
05
Corrections prioritized
Errors reported by users are verified and fixed within days, not weeks. The site depends on accurate numbers, and fixes get priority routing over feature additions. See the Contact page for how to report a correction.
Where our data comes from
Heatpump Economics doesn't guess at numbers. Every calculation traces back to authoritative sources:
- Electricity, gas, oil & propane prices
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) state-level and regional monthly and annual price series for residential electricity, natural gas, heating oil, and propane — refreshed on the schedule EIA publishes each fuel.
- Heating and cooling load modeling
- NOAA heating- and cooling-degree-day climate normals by ZIP/climate zone, combined with a seasonal-COP energy model calibrated to each equipment type's efficiency rating (HSPF2/SEER2 for heat pumps, AFUE for furnaces and boilers).
- Equipment specifications
- NEEP (Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships) cold-climate air-source heat pump specification list, plus published AHRI/ENERGY STAR efficiency ratings for conventional gas, oil, propane, and electric-resistance systems.
- Incentive programs
- Federal programs sourced from DOE and IRS guidance, including the Section 25C expiration under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 4, 2025) and DOE's HEEHR rebate program rules (Program Notice 26-2, May 29, 2026). State and utility programs verified directly with issuing agencies and utility program documents, including program-exhaustion status where applicable.
- Installed-cost modeling
- Heatpump Economics's proprietary equipment-and-labor cost model, calibrated by system type, size, and region against published contractor pricing data and refined for ducted vs. ductless, standard vs. cold-climate, and single- vs. multi-zone configurations.
Every case study cites the specific data vintages used. When rates or programs change materially, affected case studies are re-verified and re-dated. Full formulas and citations are on the Methodology page.
The founder
Jeff Crittenden, P.E.
Founder and Principal Analyst · Ownership Economics
Heatpump Economics was founded by Jeff Crittenden, a licensed Professional Engineer with 25+ years in the energy and sustainability space. Jeff holds a Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering from Missouri University of Science and Technology and maintains a P.E. license in the state of Illinois. He works from Chicago.
His career has spanned energy consulting for utility, public sector, and private sector clients, with recent work focused on EV charging infrastructure programs for fleet transportation. That same engineering-and-economics lens is what led him to build Drive Economics first, for EV total cost of ownership — and then to extend the same rigor to home heating, where the stakes and the confusion are just as large.
Jeff's motivation for Heatpump Economics comes from the same observation that drove Drive Economics: consumers evaluating major energy purchases rarely receive analysis rigorous enough to support the investment decisions they're making. Most heat pump payback calculators run on simplifying assumptions that hide the numbers that actually matter to a specific home in a specific climate on a specific utility rate. That gap is what Heatpump Economics was built to close.
Areas of expertise
See the analysis in practice
The best way to evaluate the methodology is to read a case study. Every one starts with a real household, walks through the math line by line, and lands where the numbers land.